The Department of Health Studies Seminar

Diane Lauderdale, PhD

            &

Vanja Dukic, PhD

University of Chicago

Dept. of Health Studies

“Classic Infectious Disease Modeling and  MRSA:

First steps towards building an agent-based model”

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

3:30 p.m.

AMB W229

5841 S. Maryland Ave.

Abstract: As part of NIH/NIGMS Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) research network, we have begun a 5-year project to model the spread of community MRSA in society. First we outline the goals of the project.  Then we present our initial work developing a  a new compartmental model, the SCIS model, for the spread in a close well-mixed population, such as that of the South Side in Chicago. We will present several likely scenarios (optimistic, realistic and pessimistic) and show how incorporating the expert opinion about values and uncertainty in parameters driving this epidemic manifest itself in the epidemic course and final epidemic size.  We then discuss extensions which incorporate social contact network and individual behavior, using an agent-based model.

Persons with a disability who believe they may need assistance should call 2-2453 or e-mail cmartinez@health.bsd.uchicago.edu